2018 Oregon gubernatorial election
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250px County Results
Brown: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Buehler: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% |
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Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The 2018 Oregon gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018 to elect the Governor of Oregon who would serve a full four-year term, after the 2016 special election, where Governor Kate Brown was elected to serve the last two years of a four-year term.[1]
Incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown ran for a full term. The Republican Party nominated Knute Buehler to run against Brown; the Independent Party of Oregon nominated Patrick Starnes. Kate Brown was re-elected as governor.
Contents
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Kate Brown, incumbent Governor[2]
- Ed Jones[3]
- Candace Neville[3]
Endorsements
| Kate Brown |
|---|
|
Results
File:2018 OR gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
Brown—80–90%
Brown—70–80%
Brown—60–70%
Brown—50–60%
Brown—40–50%
| Democratic primary results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Democratic | Kate Brown (incumbent) | 324,541 | 81.9 | |
| Democratic | Ed Jones | 33,464 | 8.4 | |
| Democratic | Candace Neville | 29,110 | 7.4 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 8,912 | 2.3 | |
| Total votes | 396,027 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Keenan Bohach[3]
- Knute Buehler, state representative and nominee for secretary of state in 2012[11]
- Sam Carpenter, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2016[12][13][14]
- Jonathan Edwards III[3]
- Brett Hyland[3]
- Jeff Smith, small business owner[15]
- David Stauffer[3]
- Jack Tracy[3]
- Greg Wooldridge, former Blue Angels commanding officer[16]
Withdrew
- Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014 and 2016 (endorsed Greg Wooldridge)[3][17]
Declined
- Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Mayor of Happy Valley and nominee for the state house in 2016[18][11][19]
- Cedric Ross Hayden, state representative[20]
- Mike McLane, House Minority Leader[21]
- Bud Pierce, physician and nominee for governor in 2016[22][23]
- Bill Post, state representative[20][11]
- Dennis Richardson, Oregon Secretary of State, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2014[24]
Endorsements
| Knute Buehler |
|---|
|
| Greg Wooldridge |
|---|
|
Debates
| Host network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knute Buehler |
Sam Carpenter |
Greg Wooldridge |
|||
| KXL-FM | May 11, 2018 | [51] | Invited | Invited | Invited |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Knute Buehler |
Sam Carpenter |
Lori Chavez-DeRemer |
Greg Wooldridge |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D) | May 3–6, 2018 | 438 | ± 4.7% | 33% | 25% | – | 8% | – | 33% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | April 19–22, 2018 | 1,013 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 24% | – | 12% | 6%[lower-alpha 1] | 20% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 628 | – | 23% | 23% | – | 4% | – | 50% |
| iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 168 | ± 3.9% | 28% | – | 8% | 31% | 6% | 26% |
Results
File:2018 OR gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
Buehler—60–70%
Buehler—50–60%
Buehler—40–50%
Buehler—<40%
Carpenter—<40%
Carpenter—40–50%
Carpenter—50–60%
| Republican primary results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Knute Buehler | 144,103 | 45.9 | |
| Republican | Sam Carpenter | 90,572 | 28.8 | |
| Republican | Greg C. Wooldridge | 63,049 | 20.1 | |
| Republican | Bruce Cuff | 4,857 | 1.5 | |
| Republican | Jeff Smith | 4,691 | 1.5 | |
| Republican | David Stauffer | 2,096 | 0.7 | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 1,701 | 0.5 | |
| Republican | Jonathan Edwards III | 861 | 0.3 | |
| Republican | Keenan Bohach | 787 | 0.3 | |
| Republican | Brett Hyland | 755 | 0.2 | |
| Republican | Jack W. Tacy | 512 | 0.2 | |
| Total votes | 313,984 | 100 | ||
Independent primary
Candidates
Declared
Results
| Independent primary results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Independent | Write-ins | 13,497 | 56.8 | |
| Independent | Patrick Starnes | 6,030 | 25.4 | |
| Independent | Skye J. Allen | 2,405 | 10.6 | |
| Independent | Dan Pistoresi | 1,846 | 7.8 | |
| Total votes | 23,778 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 2, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 9, 2018
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Governing[52] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[53] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[54] | Tilt D | November 1, 2018 |
| The Cook Political Report[55] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[56] | Likely D | October 17, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[57] | Lean D | October 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[58] | Tossup | September 26, 2018 |
| Fox News[59][lower-alpha 2] | Lean D | September 14, 2018 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Knute Buehler (R) |
Patrick Starnes (IPO) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffman Research Group | October 29–30, 2018 | 694 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 42% | 4% | 2%[60] | 7% |
| Emerson College | October 26–28, 2018 | 747 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 42% | – | 7% | 4% |
| DHM Research | October 4–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 35% | 4% | 3%[61] | 17% |
| Riley Research Associates | September 24 – October 7, 2018 | 356 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 45% | 4% | 3%[62] | – |
| Clout Research (R) | September 20–23, 2018 | 679 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 41% | – | – | – |
| Hoffman Research Group | September 12–13, 2018 | 680 | ± 3.8% | 46% | 36% | 4% | 2%[60] | 12% |
| Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC) | September 6–11, 2018 | 2,831 | ± 2.0% | 41% | 43% | – | – | – |
| Clout Research (R) | July 30–31, 2018 | 559 | ± 4.1% | 42% | 43% | – | – | 15% |
| Gravis Marketing | July 16–17, 2018 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 45% | – | – | 10% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 2,067 | ± 2.2% | 41% | 46% | – | – | 14% |
| DHM Research | January 25–31, 2018 | 604 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 29% | – | – | 25% |
| Zogby Analytics | November 10–12, 2017 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 39% | 36% | – | – | 25% |
| iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 645 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 40% | – | 11% | 8% |
|
Hypothetical polling |
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|
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kate Brown (incumbent) | 934,498 | 50.05% | -0.57% | |
| Republican | Knute Buehler | 814,988 | 43.65% | +0.20% | |
| Independent | Patrick Starnes | 53,392 | 2.86% | +0.42% | |
| Libertarian | Nick Chen | 28,927 | 1.55% | -0.77% | |
| Constitution (Oregon) | Aaron Auer | 21,145 | 1.13% | +0.13% | |
| Progressive | Chris Henry | 11,013 | 0.59% | N/A | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 3,034 | 0.16% | -0.01% | |
| Total votes | 1,866,997 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Notes
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- Official campaign websites
- Aaron Auer (C) for Governor
- Kate Brown (D) for Governor
- Knute Buehler (R) for Governor
- Alex DiBlasi (G) for Governor
- Patrick Starnes (I) for Governor
- Nick Chen (L) for Governor
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- ↑ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WFU27n266k
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- ↑ 60.0 60.1 Aaron Auer (C) and Nick Chen (L) with 1%
- ↑ Nick Chen (L) and Chris Henry (P) with 1%, Aaron Auer (C) with <1%, somebody else with 1%
- ↑ Nick Chen (L) with 2%, Aaron Aauer (C) with 1%
- ↑ https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/results/november-2018-official-results.pdf
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