41st New Brunswick general election
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49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick 25 seats needed for a majority |
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The 41st New Brunswick general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 21, 2024, according to the Legislative Assembly Act of 2017 which states that an election should be held every four years on the third Monday in October.[1]
Contents
Background
Defections and de-registration of the People's Alliance
On March 30, 2022, Kris Austin and Michelle Conroy announced their departures from the People's Alliance to join the Progressive Conservatives. Austin said that the result of the 2020 provincial election, when the party lost one of its three seats, had prompted him to undertake some “soul-searching”, but that he believed he had changed politics in New Brunswick.[2] Both Austin and Conroy stated that they believed they could better represent their ridings from within government.[3]
Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs expressed excitement about his party's new MLAs, but reiterated the party's support for official bilingualism when questioned about the People's Alliance's previous stances on the issue. The acceptance of MLAs who had expressed anti-bilingual opinions was criticized by the Acadian Society of New Brunswick, an organization promoting the rights of francophones in the province, when their president Alexandre Cédric Doucet said that he was happy to see the Alliance dissolve, but that it was "a sad day" for the Progressive Conservatives.[3]
The Chief Electoral Officer of New Brunswick confirmed that the Peoples Alliance of New Brunswick would be deregistered as a provincial party on March 31, 2022.[4] In April 2022, interim leader Rick DeSaulniers and party announced plans to re-register as a party.[5] Elections New Brunswick confirmed the party was re-registered in May 2022.[6]
Current standings
Affiliation | Assembly members | ||
---|---|---|---|
2020 election results | Current | ||
Progressive Conservative | 27 | 29 | |
Liberal | 17 | 16 | |
Green | 3 | 3 | |
People's Alliance | 2 | 0[lower-alpha 2] | |
Independent | 0 | 1 | |
Vacant | 0 | ||
Total members | 49 | 49 | |
Total seats | 49 | 49 |
Summary of seat changes
Changes in seats held (2020–present) | |||||||
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Seat | Before | Change | |||||
Date | Member | Party | Reason | Date | Member | Party | |
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin | August 17, 2021 | Jake Stewart | █ PC | Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election; elected. | June 20, 2022 | Mike Dawson | █ PC |
Miramichi Bay-Neguac | Lisa Harris | █ Liberal | Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election; defeated. | Réjean Savoie | █ PC | ||
Fredericton-Grand Lake | March 30, 2022 | Kris Austin | █ People's Allnc. | Changed affiliation, resigning as People's Alliance leader and announcing his intention to deregister the party. | █ PC | ||
Miramichi | Michelle Conroy | █ People's Allnc. | Changed affiliation. | █ PC | |||
Fredericton West-Hanwell | October 16, 2022 | Dominic Cardy | █ PC | Expelled from the PC caucus having resigned his ministerial role. | █ Independent | ||
Dieppe | October 21, 2022 | Roger Melanson | █ Liberal | Resigned to head to the private sector. | April 24, 2023 | Richard Losier | █ Liberal |
Restigouche-Chaleur | November 27, 2022 | Daniel Guitard | █ Liberal | Resigned to run for Mayor of Belle-Baie in 2022 elections; elected. | Marco LeBlanc | █ Liberal | |
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore | November 27, 2022 | Denis Landry | █ Liberal | Resigned to run for Mayor of Hautes-Terres in 2022 elections; elected. | Susan Holt | █ Liberal |
Opinion polls
- Voting Intentions in New Brunswick since the 2020 election
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Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | PC | Liberal | Green | PA | NDP | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Narrative Research | May 17, 2023 | [p 1] | 34 | 34 | 19 | 2 | 10 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone | 0 |
Narrative Research | February 25, 2023 | [p 2] | 37 | 35 | 17 | 2 | 9 | ±4.6 pp | 450 | telephone | 2 |
Leger | December 23, 2022 | [p 3] | 22 | 40 | 15 | 9 | 12 | ±4.4 pp | 500 | online | 18 |
Narrative Research | November 27, 2022 | [p 4] | 30 | 39 | 18 | 2 | 10 | ±4.0 pp | 611 | telephone | 9 |
Narrative Research | August 24, 2022 | [p 5] | 30 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 11 | ±4.2 pp | 525 | telephone | 11 |
Susan Holt is elected leader of the Liberal Party (August 6, 2022) | |||||||||||
Angus Reid | June 13, 2022 | [p 6] | 31 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 13 | ±6.0 pp | 247 | online | 5 |
Narrative Research | May 19, 2022 | [p 7] | 34 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 9 | ±4.0 pp | 607 | telephone | 0 |
Nanos Research | April 11, 2022 | [p 8] | 36.6 | 38.8 | 14.2 | 1.2 | 8.6 | ±4.8 pp | 423 | online/telephone | 2.2 |
Both People's Alliance MLAs join the Progressive Conservatives, with Kris Austin announcing intention to de-register the party (March 30, 2022) | |||||||||||
Angus Reid | March 15, 2022 | [p 9] | 31 | 32 | 15 | 13 | 9 | ±6.0 pp | 251 | online | 1 |
Narrative Research | February 27, 2022 | [p 10] | 34 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 11 | ±4.2 pp | 545 | telephone | 3 |
Angus Reid | January 10, 2022 | [p 11] | 26 | 37 | 16 | 10 | 8 | ±7.0 pp | 216 | online | 11 |
MQO Research | December 14, 2021 | [p 12] | 29 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 11 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone (rolling) | 7 |
Narrative Research | November 24, 2021 | [p 13] | 28 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 13 | ±3.5 pp | 800 | telephone | 10 |
Stratcom | November 6, 2021 | [p 14] | 20.5 | 39.8 | 17.9 | 12.0 | - | ±2.8 pp | 1,184 | IVR | 19.3 |
Angus Reid | October 3, 2021 | [p 15] | 31 | 31 | 12 | 12 | 13 | ±2.0 pp | 265 | online | 0 |
Narrative Research | August 17, 2021 | [p 16] | 33 | 29 | 22 | 5 | 11 | ±2.0 pp | 604 | telephone | 4 |
Angus Reid | June 7, 2021 | [p 17] | 36 | 31 | 17 | 12 | 4 | ±2.0 pp | 248 | online | 5 |
Narrative Research | May 31, 2021 | [p 18] | 39 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 8 | ±3.5 pp | 800 | telephone (rolling) | 11 |
MQO Research | March 18, 2021 | [p 19] | 38 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 6 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone (rolling) | 7 |
Narrative Research | February 17, 2021 | [p 20] | 35 | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | ±3.5 pp | 800 | telephone (rolling) | 3 |
Narrative Research | November 22, 2020 | [p 21] | 41 | 28 | 20 | 4 | 6 | ±3.5 pp | 800 | telephone (rolling) | 13 |
Kevin Vickers resigns as Liberal Party leader; MLA for Dieppe Roger Melanson becomes interim leader (September 14, 2020) | |||||||||||
Election 2020 | September 14, 2020 | HTML | 39.3 | 34.4 | 15.2 | 9.2 | 1.7 | N/A | N/A | 4.9 | |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead | |||||
PC | Liberal | Green | PA | NDP |
Notes
- ↑ DeSaulniers was the MLA for Fredericton-York, 2018-2020.
- ↑ Party was deregistered on March 31, 2022.
References
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Opinion poll sources
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