South Australian state election, 2014
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The 2014 South Australian state election was held on 15 March 2014, to fill all 47 seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council or upper house. The 12-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party government, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, won its fourth consecutive four-year term in government, a record 16 years of Labor government, defeating the opposition Liberal Party of Australia, led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall.
The election resulted in a hung parliament with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals. The balance of power rested with the two crossbench independents, Bob Such and Geoff Brock. Such did not indicate who he would support in a minority government before he went on medical leave for a brain tumour. University of Adelaide Professor and Political Commentator Clem McIntyre said Such's situation virtually guaranteed Brock would side with Labor. With 24 seats required to govern, Brock backed Labor. McIntyre said:[1]
If Geoff Brock had gone with the Liberals, then the Parliament would have effectively been tied 23 to 23, so once Bob Such became ill and stepped away then Geoff Brock, I think had no choice but to side with Labor.
The Liberals were reduced to 21 seats in May 2014 when Martin Hamilton-Smith became an independent and entered cabinet with Brock. Both Hamilton-Smith and Brock agreed to support the Labor government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to otherwise vote on conscience. It is the longest-serving state Labor government in South Australian history and is the second time that Labor has won four consecutive state elections in South Australia, the first occurred when Don Dunstan led Labor to four consecutive victories between 1970 and 1977. The last hung parliament occurred when Labor came to government in 2002. Labor achieved majority government when Nat Cook won the 2014 Fisher by-election by five votes from a 7.3 percent two-party swing which was triggered by the death of Such. Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept Brock and Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority.
Like federal elections, South Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in the lower house and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.
Contents
Results
Lower house
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The Liberals took three seats from Labor resulting in a hung parliament with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals.[2] The balance of power rested with the two crossbench independents, Bob Such and Geoff Brock.[3] On 22 March, Such went on medical leave for a brain tumour. University of Adelaide Professor and Political Commentator Clem McIntyre said Such's situation virtually guaranteed Brock would side with Labor. With 24 seats required to govern, Brock backed Labor, allowing Weatherill to remain in office at the head of a minority government. McIntyre said:[1]
If Geoff Brock had gone with the Liberals, then the Parliament would have effectively been tied 23 to 23, so once Bob Such became ill and stepped away then Geoff Brock, I think had no choice but to side with Labor.
In a joint press conference with Weatherill, Brock said Such's absence prompted him to make his decision a week sooner than planned.[4] The new government was sworn in on 26 March, with Brock in cabinet as Minister for Regional Development and Local Government.[2] The Liberals were reduced to 21 seats in May 2014 when Martin Hamilton-Smith became an independent and entered cabinet as Minister for Investment and Trade, Defence Industries and Veterans Affairs. Both Hamilton-Smith and Brock agreed to support the Labor government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to otherwise vote on conscience.[5][6] Labor achieved majority government when Nat Cook won the 2014 Fisher by-election by five votes from a 7.3 percent two-party swing which was triggered by the death of Such. Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept Brock and Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority.[7]
Party | Votes | % | Swing | Seats | Change | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal Party of Australia | 455,797 | 44.8 | +3.1 | 22 | +4 | |
Australian Labor Party | 364,420 | 35.8 | −1.7 | 23 | –3 | |
SA Greens | 88,600 | 8.7 | +0.6 | 0 | 0 | |
Family First Party | 63,575 | 6.2 | +0.9 | 0 | 0 | |
Independent | 37,955 | 3.7 | −1.0 | 2 | −1 | |
Other | 7,509 | 0.7 | –1.9 | 0 | 0 | |
Total | 1,017,856 | 47 | ||||
Australian Labor Party | WIN | 47.0 | −1.4 | 23 | −3 | |
Liberal Party of Australia | 53.0 | +1.4 | 22 | +4 |
Independents: Bob Such, Geoff Brock
Seat movement
The following seats changed hands:[11]
Seat | Pre-2014 | Swing | Post-2014 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Member | Party | ||||
Bright | Labor | Chloë Fox | 0.5 | 3.7 | 3.3 | David Speirs | Liberal | ||
Hartley | Labor | Grace Portolesi | 0.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | Vincent Tarzia | Liberal | ||
Mitchell | Labor | Alan Sibbons | 2.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | Corey Wingard | Liberal | ||
Mount Gambier | Independent | Don Pegler | 0.5 | 7.7 | 7.2 | Troy Bell | Liberal |
Pendulum
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The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2014 results.[10][12] "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[13]
LABOR SEATS (23) | |||
Marginal | |||
Newland | Tom Kenyon | ALP | 1.4% |
Colton | Paul Caica | ALP | 1.5% |
Elder | Annabel Digance | ALP | 1.8% |
Ashford | Steph Key | ALP | 1.9% |
Florey | Frances Bedford | ALP | 2.5% |
Light | Tony Piccolo | ALP | 2.8% |
Wright | Jennifer Rankine | ALP | 3.0% |
Torrens | Dana Wortley | ALP | 3.5% |
Lee | Stephen Mullighan | ALP | 4.5% |
Mawson | Leon Bignell | ALP | 5.6% |
Fairly safe | |||
Giles | Eddie Hughes | ALP | 7.0% |
Little Para | Lee Odenwalder | ALP | 7.4% |
Kaurna | Chris Picton | ALP | 7.7% |
Enfield | John Rau | ALP | 8.1% |
Napier | Jon Gee | ALP | 9.1% |
Reynell | Katrine Hildyard | ALP | 10.0% |
Safe | |||
Port Adelaide | Susan Close | ALP | 10.6% |
West Torrens | Tom Koutsantonis | ALP | 10.8% |
Taylor | Leesa Vlahos | ALP | 11.6% |
Playford | Jack Snelling | ALP | 12.6% |
Cheltenham | Jay Weatherill | ALP | 14.3% |
Ramsay | Zoe Bettison | ALP | 18.4% |
Croydon | Michael Atkinson | ALP | 18.9% |
LIBERAL SEATS (22) | |||
Marginal | |||
Mitchell | Corey Wingard | LIB | 1.2% |
Adelaide | Rachel Sanderson | LIB | 2.4% |
Hartley | Vincent Tarzia | LIB | 2.4% |
Dunstan | Steven Marshall | LIB | 3.1% |
Bright | David Speirs | LIB | 3.3% |
Fairly safe | |||
Mt Gambier | Troy Bell | LIB | 7.2% v IND |
Davenport | Iain Evans | LIB | 8.1% |
Unley | David Pisoni | LIB | 9.8% |
Morialta | John Gardner | LIB | 10.0% |
Safe | |||
Heysen | Isobel Redmond | LIB | 11.0% v GRN |
Waite | Martin Hamilton-Smith | LIB | 11.4% |
Goyder | Steven Griffiths | LIB | 12.9% |
Morphett | Duncan McFetridge | LIB | 12.9% |
Finniss | Michael Pengilly | LIB | 13.8% |
Kavel | Mark Goldsworthy | LIB | 14.0% |
Schubert | Stephan Knoll | LIB | 14.6% |
Hammond | Adrian Pederick | LIB | 14.6% |
Bragg | Vickie Chapman | LIB | 18.7% |
Stuart | Dan van Holst Pellekaan | LIB | 20.5% |
Chaffey | Tim Whetstone | LIB | 25.1% |
MacKillop | Mitch Williams | LIB | 26.7% |
Flinders | Peter Treloar | LIB | 29.2% |
INDEPENDENT SEATS (2) | |||
Frome | Geoff Brock | IND | 8.8% v LIB |
Fisher | IND | 9.4% v LIB |
Upper house
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Party | Votes | % | Swing | Seats Won | Total Seats | Change | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal Party of Australia | 363,809 | 36.0 | −3.4 | 4 | 8 | +1 | |
Australian Labor Party | 312,944 | 31.0 | −6.3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | |
Independent Nick Xenophon Team | 130,289 | 12.9 | +12.9 | 1 | 1 | −1 | |
SA Greens | 65,215 | 6.5 | −0.1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
Family First Party | 44,015 | 4.4 | −0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
Dignity for Disability | 9,367 | 0.9 | −0.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
Other | 85,292 | 8.4 | −2.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Total | 1,010,931 | 11 | 22 |
Current (2014–18) members of the South Australian Legislative Council | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labor (8) | Liberal (8) | Green (2) | Family First (2) | No Pokies (1) | Dignity for Disability (1) |
elected 2014: |
elected 2014: |
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elected 2014: |
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elected 2010: |
elected 2010: |
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elected 2010: |
Date
The last state election was held on 20 March 2010 to elect members for the House of Assembly and half of the members in the Legislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them.[18]
The Electoral (Miscellaneous) Amendment Act 2013 introduced set dates for writs for General elections in South Australia. The writ sets the dates for the close of the electoral roll and the close of nominations for an election. The Electoral Act 1985 requires that, for a general election, the writ be issued 28 days before the date fixed for polling (S47(2a)) and the electoral roll be closed at 12 noon, 6 days after the issue of the writ (S48(3(a)(i). The close of nominations will be at 12 noon 3 days after the close of rolls (Electoral Act 1985 S48(4)(a) and S4(1)). Since the previous election, five new parties had registered: Fishing and Lifestyle Party, Liberal Democratic Party, Multicultural Progress Party, Stop Population Growth Now, and Katter's Australian Party. Six were no longer registered: The Democrats, Save the RAH, Gamers 4 Croydon, Democratic Labor Party, One Nation, and United Party.[19]
Polling Day for the 2014 South Australian State election was Saturday 15 March 2014 from 8am until 6pm. The Issue of Writ for the 2014 South Australian State election was Saturday 15 February 2014. The Electoral Roll closed at 12 noon, Friday 21 February 2014. Nominations for candidates wishing to stand for election closed at 12 noon, Monday 24 February 2014,[20] with the ballot order for both houses drawn and released shortly after,[21][22] followed by close and release of upper house above-the-line preference tickets.[22] Lower house how-to-vote card lodgements closed at 12 noon, 7 March 2014.[23]
The 2014 Tasmanian state election occurred on the same day.[24]
Background
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The centre-left Australian Labor Party, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, and the centre-right Liberal Party of Australia, led by Leader of the Opposition Steven Marshall, are the two main parties in South Australia. In the 2010 state election, of 47 seats total, the Labor Party won 26 seats and the Liberal Party won 18 seats. Three seats were won by independents, Bob Such (Fisher), Geoff Brock (Frome), and Don Pegler (Mount Gambier). Smaller parties which held no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2010 include the SA Greens and the Family First Party. In the upper house, the Labor Party held eight seats, the Liberal Party held seven seats, the SA Greens, the Family First Party, and No Pokies all held two seats each, and Dignity for Disability held one seat.
A Port Adelaide by-election and a Ramsay by-election occurred on 11 February 2012, Labor retained both seats.
Retiring MPs
Labor
- Lyn Breuer MHA (Giles)[25]
- Patrick Conlon MHA (Elder)[26]
- Robyn Geraghty MHA (Torrens)[27]
- John Hill MHA (Kaurna)[26]
- Michael O'Brien MHA (Napier)[28]
- Gay Thompson MHA (Reynell)[29]
- Michael Wright MHA (Lee)[30]
- Carmel Zollo MLC[31]
Liberal
- Ivan Venning MHA (Schubert)[32]
Other
Redistributions and the two-party vote
To produce 'fair' boundaries, which has a history going back to the mid-1900s Playmander, the Electoral Commission of South Australia has been required following the 1989 election to redraw boundaries after each election through a "fairness" provision with the objective that the party which receives over 50 percent of the statewide two-party vote at the forthcoming election should win the two-party vote in a majority of seats.[34] Labor's success in South Australia since the end of the Playmander has been based in part on the strength of its dominance in Adelaide, located in a highly centralised state, with the Liberal vote locked up in rural seats. In 2014 for instance, Labor only won 47 percent of the statewide two-party vote to the Liberals' 53 percent. However, the Liberals only won 12 of the 36 urban seats, while only 4 of their 14 safe two-party seats were urban, with all eight non-safe (<10 percent) seats being urban. Overall, the election resulted in a hung parliament with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals. The balance of power rested with the two crossbench independents, Bob Such and Geoff Brock. Their seats, Fisher and Frome, both returned clear Liberal two-party votes but elected independents. 24 seats had returned a Liberal two-party vote, 23 seats returned a Labor two-party vote, therefore the "fairness" provision was met. One element of the Playmander still exists to this day which contributes to the issue − the change from multi-member to single-member seats. Each Labor period of government since the end of the Playmander had at least one comprehensive win, allowing often-Liberal seats to be won by Labor candidates who then built up incumbency and personal popularity. Examples in 2014 were Mawson, Newland and Light, and additionally in 2010, Bright and Hartley – all gained at the 2006 election landslide. Mawson in fact swung toward Labor in 2010 and 2014 despite the statewide trend. The bellwether seat of Colton was retained by Labor. Furthermore, metropolitan Liberal seats and booths had single and double digit swings against them.
In 2014, referring to the 1989 fairness legislation, Premier Jay Weatherill said "Complaining about the rules when you designed the rules I think sits ill on the mouth of the Liberal Party", while Electoral Commissioner Kay Mousley said it was an "impossible" task for the Boundaries Commission to achieve the legislated requirement, stating "It is a constitutional requirement, and until the constitution gets changed, I must say I find it a very inexact science".[35] Additionally, she had previously stated in 2010 "Had the Liberal Party achieved a uniform swing it would have formed Government. The Commission has no control over, and can accept no responsibility for, the quality of the candidates, policies and campaigns."[36]
The Liberal Party disagreed with that assessment, and submitted that Hartley, Elder and Bright should be moved from Labor to Liberal.[37]
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation's election expert Antony Green expected that the Labor government's parliamentary majority from the 2010 election would be redistributed away.[38][39] However, the draft redistribution, which altered the boundaries of 36 of 47 seats, nominally gave Labor 26 seats and the Liberals 21 seats on a two-party basis. Although held by an independent member, Frome was proposed to be moved from Labor to Liberal on a two-party basis. It was also proposed that the Norwood be renamed Dunstan.[40]
The final redistribution was released in August 2012. The renaming of the seat of Norwood to Dunstan occurred. On Antony Green's calculations, the notional two-party margin in Frome went from 0.1 percent Labor to 1.7 percent Liberal, Ashford went from 4.8 percent to 0.6 percent for Labor, Hartley went from 2.3 percent to 0.1 percent for Labor, Elder went from 3.6 percent to 2.0 percent for Labor and Light went from 5.3 percent to 2.8 percent for Labor, amongst other boundary and margin reductions and increases. All redistribution figures and swings used are based on Antony Green's booth-based declaration vote calculations rather than the electoral commission's seat-based declaration vote calculations.[41][42][43][44]
Polling
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Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian was conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consisted of over 800 electors, while the 10–13 March 2014 poll consisted of 1602 electors. The declared margin of errors at these sample sizes were ±3.5 percent and ±2.5 percent respectively. Two-party preferred figures were calculated based on preference flows at the 2010 state election.
Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | Lib | Nat | Grn | Oth | ALP | Lib | ||||
15 Mar 2014 election | 35.8% | 44.8% | 0.1% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 47.0% | 53.0% | |||
10–13 Mar 2014 | 34% | 41% | <.5% | 9% | 16% | 47.7% | 52.3% | |||
21–27 Feb 2014 | 34% | 44% | <.5% | 7% | 15% | 46% | 54% | |||
Oct–Dec 2013 | 33% | 40% | <.5% | 10% | 17% | 47% | 53% | |||
Apr–Jun 2013 | 32% | 44% | 1% | 10% | 13% | 44% | 56% | |||
Mar 2013 | 33% | 43% | 1% | 10% | 13% | 46% | 54% | |||
Oct–Dec 2012 | 37% | 40% | 1% | 9% | 13% | 49% | 51% | |||
Jul–Sep 2012 | 28% | 43% | 1% | 11% | 17% | 43% | 57% | |||
Jan–Mar 2012 | 34% | 40% | <.5% | 11% | 15% | 48% | 52% | |||
Nov–Dec 2011 | 34% | 40% | 2% | 9% | 15% | 48% | 52% | |||
Apr–Jun 2011 | 30% | 40% | 1% | 14% | 15% | 46% | 54% | |||
25 Feb–6 Mar 2011 | 29% | 42% | 1% | 14% | 14% | 44% | 56% | |||
20 Mar 2010 election | 37.5% | 41.7% | 1.0% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 48.4% | 51.6% | |||
14–18 Mar 2010 | 35.3% | 42.5% | < .5% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 48% | 52% | |||
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. |
Better Premier | Weatherill | Marshall | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Weatherill | Marshall | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |||
15 Mar 2014 election | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
10–13 Mar 2014 | 43% | 37% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 35% | ||
21–27 Feb 2014 | 40% | 39% | 43% | 44% | 45% | 29% | ||
Oct–Dec 2013 | 40% | 29% | 43% | 37% | 43% | 21% | ||
Apr–Jun 2013 | 41% | 30% | 47% | 35% | 41% | 20% | ||
Mar 2013 | 42% | 27% | 46% | 34% | 37% | 19% | ||
Oct–Dec 2012 | 47% | 27%2 | 49% | 32% | 40%2 | 40%2 | ||
Jul–Sep 2012 | 40% | 27%2 | 42% | 33% | 40%2 | 36%2 | ||
Jan–Mar 2012 | 46% | 23%2 | 47% | 23% | 43%2 | 34%2 | ||
Nov–Dec 2011 | 45% | 29%2 | 51% | 14% | 49%2 | 30%2 | ||
Apr–Jun 2011 | 34%1 | 45%2 | 31%1 | 59%1 | 51%2 | 29%2 | ||
25 Feb–6 Mar 2011 | 32%1 | 50%2 | 30%1 | 59%1 | 52%2 | 25%2 | ||
20 Mar 2010 election | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
14–18 Mar 2010 | 43%1 | 45%2 | 43%1 | 48%1 | 59%2 | 23%2 | ||
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1 Mike Rann. 2 Isobel Redmond. |
See also
- Candidates of the South Australian state election, 2014
- Members of the South Australian House of Assembly, 2014–2018
- Members of the South Australian Legislative Council, 2014–2018
- South Australian state election, 2010
- South Australian state election, 2018
External links
- 2014 SA election: Antony Green ABC
- 2014 SA election: Poll Bludger
- 2014 SA election: Tally Room
- Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA)
- Lower house how-to-vote cards and upper house above-the-line preference tickets: ECSA
- Polls point towards possible hung Parliament: ABC 14 March 2014
- Advertiser-Galaxy poll shows Labor ahead 51-49 in two critical marginal seats & chance to deny Libs majority government: The Advertiser 15 March 2014
- Galaxy; 51-49 to Labor in Newland and Mitchell (SA): Poll Bludger 13 March 2014
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 By-election for Bob Such's seat of Fisher expected to put pressure on Weatherill Government: ABC 13 October 2014
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Re-elected SA Labor Government gets down to business: ABC 27/3/2014
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Labor to form minority government with support of independent Geoff Brock: ABC 23 March 2014
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Former Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith attends first Labor Cabinet meeting in SA: ABC 2 June 2014
- ↑ Fisher by-election win for Labor gives Weatherill Government majority in SA: ABC 13 December 2014
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- ↑ 2014 SA election House of Assembly final results: ECSA
- ↑ Political party name abbreviations & codes, demographic ratings and seat status: AEC
- ↑ Independent MP for Fisher Bob Such, without indicating confidence and supply support, took medical leave for a brain tumour one week after the election with his death occurring later that year. Labor achieved majority government when Nat Cook won the 2014 Fisher by-election.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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- ↑ Legislative Council Statement of Results Report, 2014 SA election: ECSA
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- ↑ Liberal South Australian MP Ivan Venning calling stumps: AdelaideNow 10 July 2012
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- ↑ The 1989 South Australian election, Australian Journal of Political Science, Dean Jaensch
- ↑ Liberals blocked by unfair boundaries, says Downer: The Australian 17 March 2014
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- ↑ 2014 South Australian Electoral Pendulum: Antony Green ABC 21 January 2014
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- ↑ 2014 SA election seats: ABC