2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election
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Alaska's at-large congressional district |
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Template:Elections in Alaska sidebar
The 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16, 2022. Democrat Mary Peltola won the open seat, thereby becoming the first of her party to win a U.S. House election in Alaska since 1972. Peltola, who is a Yup'ik woman, is the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House.[2] She defeated Republican former governor Sarah Palin in the state's first ranked-choice general election.
The seat became vacant when 49-year incumbent Republican representative Don Young died on March 18, 2022.[3] A special primary election was held on June 11, while the general election was held alongside the regular primary election on August 16. The filing deadline was on April 1.[4] This was the first election to use the state's new voting system, approved for use with 2020 Alaska Measure 2. Under the new system, all candidates compete in a single blanket primary, with the four candidates receiving the most votes advancing to the general election, which is conducted using instant-runoff voting.
The special primary election took place in June 2022, and the top four vote-getters were set to advance to a general election. The third-placed candidate in the primary, Al Gross, withdrew, so only the other three names were on the ballot in the general election. This election used ranked-choice voting, with the winner being the one who accumulated a majority of the votes (or a majority of votes in play at that point in time).
The runoff count commenced on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted.[5][6] Peltola was declared the winner on August 31.[7] The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset due to Alaska's strong Republican lean. Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide or congressional election in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008.[8] She was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13.[9]
Nonpartisan blanket primary
Candidates
Advanced to general election
- Sarah Palin (Republican), former governor of Alaska (2006–2009) and nominee for vice president of the United States in 2008[10][11][12]
- Nick Begich III (Republican), Alaska Policy Forum board member, grandson of former U.S. Representative Nick Begich, nephew of former U.S. Senator Mark Begich and Alaska Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich[10][13][12]
- Mary Peltola (Democratic), former state representative (1999–2009) and executive director of the Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission[10][14][12]
Withdrew after advancing to general election
- Al Gross (Independent), orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and Democratic-endorsed nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[10][12][15] (endorsed Peltola)[16]
Eliminated in primary
- Dennis Aguayo (Independent)[10]
- Jay R. Armstrong (Republican), gold miner[10]
- Brian Beal (Independent)[10]
- Tim Beck (Independent), former Fairbanks North Star Borough Assembly member (1998–2004, 2005–2011), candidate for FNSB mayor (2000) and Alaska Senate (2006)[10]
- Gregg Brelsford (Independent), lawyer and former Bristol Bay Borough manager (2018–2020)[10][4]
- Robert Brown (Independent), veteran[10]
- Chris Bye (Libertarian), fishing guide[10]
- John Callahan (Republican), public affairs officer for the Alaska Air National Guard[10][17]
- Arlene Carl (Independent), retiree[10]
- Santa Claus (Independent), North Pole city councillor (2015–2018, since 2019) and current mayor pro tem[10][18] (endorsed Peltola)[19]
- John Coghill (Republican), former majority leader of the Alaskan State Senate (2013–2017), former state senator (2009–2021), former majority leader of the Alaskan House of Representatives (2002–2006), former state representative (1999–2009), son of former Lieutenant Governor Jack Coghill, and U.S. Air Force veteran[10][20]
- Christopher Constant (Democratic), Anchorage Assembly member since 2017[10][13]
- Lady Donna Dutchess (Independent), judicial reform activist[10]
- Otto Florschutz (Republican), former Wrangell Port Commissioner[10]
- Laurel Foster (Independent), paralegal[10]
- Tom Gibbons (Republican), business manager[10]
- Karyn Griffin (Independent), political organizer and activist[10][21]
- Andrew Halcro (Independent), former Republican state representative (1998–2003) and Independent candidate for governor of Alaska in 2006[10][22][18]
- Ted Heintz (Independent), Corporate Contract Services Professional[10]
- William Hibler III (Independent), former glaciologist with the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Democratic candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2016 and 2020[10]
- John Howe (Alaskan Independence Party), machinist and Alaskan Independence Party nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[10]
- David Hughes (Independent), program manager[10]
- Don Knight (Independent)[10]
- Jeff Lowenfels (Independent), attorney and gardening writer[10][22]
- Robert "Bob" Lyons (Republican), case manager[10][23]
- Anne McCabe (Independent), former president of the Kenai Peninsula Educational Support Association[10][21]
- Mikel Melander, blue collar worker[10]
- Sherry Mettler (Independent), businesswoman[10]
- Mike Milligan (Democratic), former Kodiak Island Borough Assembly member, Green Party nominee for U.S. House (1992) and lieutenant governor (1998)[10]
- J. R. Myers (Libertarian), behavioral health clinician, founder of the Alaska Constitution Party and its nominee for governor in 2014[10]
- Emil Notti (Democratic), engineer, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, former chair of the Alaska Democratic Party, and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 1973[10][24]
- Robert Ornelas (American Independent Party), perennial candidate[10]
- Silvio Pellegrini (Independent), cyber security manager, IT project manager, and intelligence analyst for the US Air Force Reserve[10][25]
- Josh Revak (Republican), state senator for District M (2019–present) and U.S. Army veteran[10][18]
- Maxwell Sumner (Republican), homebuilder[10][17]
- Tara Sweeney (Republican), former assistant secretary of the Interior for the Bureau of Indian Affairs (2018–2021)[10][22][11][26] (ran as write-in candidate in general election)[27]
- David Thistle (Independent)[10]
- Ernest Thomas (Democratic)[10]
- Clayton Trotter (Republican), college professor[10]
- Bradley Welter (Republican)[10]
- Jason Williams (Independent)[10]
- Joe Woodward (Republican)[10]
- Adam Wool (Democratic), state representative (2015–present)[10][18]
- Stephen Wright (Republican), candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2016, candidate for Alaska State Senate in 2020, and U.S. Air Force veteran[10][28]
Withdrawn
- Breck Craig (Independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[10]
- Richard Morris (Independent)[10]
- Jesse Sumner (Republican), member of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough Assembly[10][17]
Declined
- Les Gara (Democratic), former state representative (2003–2019) (running for governor)[29]
- Mead Treadwell (Republican), former lieutenant governor of Alaska (endorsed Sweeney)[30]
Endorsements
| Nick Begich (R) |
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State legislators
Organizations
Individuals
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| Santa Claus (I) |
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State legislators |
| Christopher Constant (D) |
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U.S. senators
State legislators
Local officials
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| Al Gross (I) |
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State officials
State legislators
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| Sarah Palin (R) |
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U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. federal legislators
Individuals
Organizations |
| Mary Peltola (D) |
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Individuals
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| Josh Revak (R) |
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Individuals
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| Tara Sweeney (R) |
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U.S. executive branch officials
State officials
Organizations
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Debates and forums
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||||||
| Begich | Coghill | Constant | Gross | Lowenfels | Palin | Revak | Peltola | Sweeney | |||||
| 1[41] | May 12, 2022 | Alaska Chamber Alaska Miners Association Alaska Oil and Gas Association Alaska Support Industry Alliance Associated General Contractors of Alaska Resource Development Council |
N/A | Youtube | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Nick Begich (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
John Coghill (R) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Andrew Halcro (I) |
Jeff Lowenfels (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Adam Wool (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 16% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | April 7–9, 2022 | 955 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 21% | – | – | 7% | 26% | – | – | 31% | – | 3% | 2% | – | 4% | 6% |
Results
File:2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special primary election by State House district.svg
Primary election results by state house district
| 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special primary election results[42] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Sarah Palin | 43,601 | 27.01 | |
| Republican | Nick Begich | 30,861 | 19.12 | |
| Independent | Al Gross (withdrew) | 20,392 | 12.63 | |
| Democratic | Mary Peltola | 16,265 | 10.08 | |
| Republican | Tara Sweeney | 9,560 | 5.92 | |
| Independent | Santa Claus | 7,625 | 4.72 | |
| Democratic | Christopher Constant | 6,224 | 3.86 | |
| Independent | Jeff Lowenfels | 5,994 | 3.71 | |
| Republican | John Coghill | 3,842 | 2.38 | |
| Republican | Josh Revak | 3,785 | 2.34 | |
| Independent | Andrew Halcro | 3,013 | 1.87 | |
| Democratic | Adam Wool | 2,730 | 1.69 | |
| Democratic | Emil Notti | 1,777 | 1.10 | |
| Libertarian | Chris Bye | 1,049 | 0.65 | |
| Democratic | Mike Milligan | 608 | 0.38 | |
| Alaskan Independence | John Howe | 380 | 0.24 | |
| Independent | Laurel Foster | 338 | 0.21 | |
| Republican | Stephen Wright | 332 | 0.21 | |
| Republican | Jay Armstrong | 286 | 0.18 | |
| Libertarian | J. R. Myers | 285 | 0.18 | |
| Independent | Gregg Brelsford | 284 | 0.18 | |
| Democratic | Ernest Thomas | 199 | 0.12 | |
| Republican | Bob Lyons | 197 | 0.12 | |
| Republican | Otto Florschutz | 193 | 0.12 | |
| Republican | Maxwell Sumner | 133 | 0.08 | |
| Republican | Clayton Trotter | 121 | 0.07 | |
| Independent | Anne McCabe | 118 | 0.07 | |
| Republican | John Callahan | 114 | 0.07 | |
| Independent | Arlene Carle | 107 | 0.07 | |
| Independent | Tim Beck | 96 | 0.06 | |
| Independent | Sherry Mettler | 92 | 0.06 | |
| Republican | Tom Gibbons | 94 | 0.06 | |
| Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 87 | 0.05 | |
| American Independent | Robert Ornelas | 83 | 0.05 | |
| Independent | Ted Heintz | 70 | 0.04 | |
| Independent | Silvio Pellegrini | 70 | 0.04 | |
| Independent | Karyn Griffin | 67 | 0.04 | |
| Independent | David Hughes | 54 | 0.03 | |
| Independent | Don Knight | 46 | 0.03 | |
| Republican | Jo Woodward | 44 | 0.03 | |
| Independent | Jason Williams | 37 | 0.02 | |
| Independent | Robert Brown | 36 | 0.02 | |
| Independent | Dennis Aguayo | 31 | 0.02 | |
| Independent | William Hibler III | 25 | 0.02 | |
| Republican | Bradley Welter | 24 | 0.01 | |
| Independent | David Thistle | 23 | 0.01 | |
| Independent | Brian Beal | 19 | 0.01 | |
| Republican | Mikel Melander | 17 | 0.01 | |
| Total votes | 161,428 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there was less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision.[26]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[43] | Likely R | August 10, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[44] | Likely R | August 4, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Safe R | June 22, 2022 |
Endorsements
| Nick Begich (R) |
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State legislators
Local Officials
Organizations
Individuals
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| Sarah Palin (R) |
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U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. federal legislators
Individuals
Organizations |
| Mary Peltola (D) |
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U.S. federal legislators
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions Organizations Tribes
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Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,219 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 30% | – | 29% | 41% | – |
| 2 | 55% | – | 45% | ||||||
| 2*[lower-alpha 2] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
| Alaska Survey Research | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 31% | – | 29% | 40% | – |
| 2 | 57% | – | 43% | ||||||
| 2*[lower-alpha 2] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
| Gross withdraws from the race | |||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | 27% | 26% | 19% | – |
| 2 | 33% | 40% | 28% | – | |||||
| 3 | 54% | 46% | – | ||||||
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Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | 21% | – | 26% | 25% | – | – |
| 2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
| 3 | 53% | 47% | – | ||||||||
| 3*[lower-alpha 3] | – | 53% | – | 47% | |||||||
| Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | – | 17% | 27% | 28% | – | – |
| 2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
| 3 | 54% | 46% | – | ||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | – | 35% | 26% | 11% | – | |
| 2 | 32% | 39% | 29% | – | |||||||
| 3 | 55% | 45% | – | ||||||||
- Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin vs. Lora Reinbold vs. Josh Revak
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Lora Reinbold (R) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | BA | 33% | 30% | 8% | 9% | 16% |
| 2 | 33% | 30% | – | 11% | 26% | ||||
| 3 | 35% | 35% | – | – | 30% |
- Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
- Al Gross vs. Josh Revak
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 34% | 31% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | First Choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
| Democratic | Mary Peltola | 74,817 | 39.66% | +982 | 75,799 | 40.19% | +15,467 | 91,266 | 51.48% | ||
| Republican | Sarah Palin | 58,339 | 30.92% | +634 | 58,973 | 31.27% | +27,053 | 86,026 | 48.52% | ||
| Republican | Nick Begich | 52,536 | 27.84% | +1,274 | 53,810 | 28.53% | -53,810 | Eliminated | |||
| Write-in | 2,974 | 1.58% | -2,974 | Eliminated | |||||||
| Total votes | 188,666 | 188,582 | 177,292 | ||||||||
| Blank or inactive ballots | 3,707 | +11,290 | 14,997 | ||||||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||||||||
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First round results by state house district
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Final round results by state house district
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See also
 |
Wikinews has related news: Peltola defeats Palin, Begich in Alaska special election for US House of Representatives |
- 2022 United States House of Representatives elections
- 2022 United States elections
- 117th United States Congress
- List of special elections to the United States House of Representatives
Notes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ 2.0 2.1 Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
- ↑ Hypothetical scenario with Claus and Palin as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Margin is the difference between the number of votes won by the winning candidate and the number of votes won by the candidate who won the second-largest number of votes.
- ↑ Results from unofficial tabulation of the raw Cast Vote Record file.
- Partisan clients
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Gross
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 10.00 10.01 10.02 10.03 10.04 10.05 10.06 10.07 10.08 10.09 10.10 10.11 10.12 10.13 10.14 10.15 10.16 10.17 10.18 10.19 10.20 10.21 10.22 10.23 10.24 10.25 10.26 10.27 10.28 10.29 10.30 10.31 10.32 10.33 10.34 10.35 10.36 10.37 10.38 10.39 10.40 10.41 10.42 10.43 10.44 10.45 10.46 10.47 10.48 10.49 10.50 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 19.0 19.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 22.0 22.1 22.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 26.0 26.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Alaska Republican Party endorses Nick Begich III for US House, Alaska Public Media, Liz Ruskin, April 22, 2022. Retrieved September 20, 2022.
- ↑ 32.0 32.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Sarah Palin's former in-laws are supporting her main Republican opponent Nick Begich in the upcoming Alaska special election, Business Insider, Bryan Metzger, May 31, 2022. Retrieved September 20, 2022.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 35.0 35.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 36.0 36.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 37.0 37.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 38.0 38.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
Categories:
- Articles with short description
- Use mdy dates from July 2022
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- 2022 Alaska elections
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