2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska

From Infogalactic: the planetary knowledge core
Jump to: navigation, search

<templatestyles src="Module:Hatnote/styles.css"></templatestyles>

For related races, see 2022 United States House of Representatives elections.

<templatestyles src="Module:Hatnote/styles.css"></templatestyles>

This article is about the regularly-held election. For the special election, see 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election.
2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska's at-large district
← 2022 (special) November 8, 2022 2024 →
  File:Rep. Mary Peltola headshot (cropped) (cropped).jpg File:Sarah Palin by Gage Skidmore 5.jpg File:3x4.svg
Candidate Mary Peltola Sarah Palin Nick Begich III
Party Democratic Republican Republican
First round 128,553
48.8%		 67,866
25.7%		 61,513
23.3%
Maximum round 137,263
55.0%		 112,471
45.0%		 Eliminated
300px
300px
300px
Peltola:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Palin:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. Representative before election

Mary Peltola
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Representative

Mary Peltola
Democratic

Template:Elections in Alaska sidebar

The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.[1]

Following voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 elections in Alaska, this was the second U.S. House election in Alaska held under the new election process, after the special election for the same seat on August 16, 2022, where Peltola was elected to succeed Republican Don Young, who died on March 18, 2022.[2] All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on the same day as the special election, with each voter casting a single vote for their preferred candidate. The four candidates who received the most votes were eventual incumbent Mary Peltola, Sarah Palin, Nick Begich III, and Tara Sweeney. However, Sweeney withdrew from the race, so fifth-place finisher Chris Bye moved on to the general election in her place.[3][4]

In the general election, Peltola led the first round by over twenty percentage points, but since no candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round, the instant runoff was triggered. Palin received support from 66.8% of Begich's voters after he was eliminated. This was not enough to catch Peltola, who won the final round by ten percentage points.[5]

Peltola's final-round vote share of 55% was the best performance for a statewide Democratic candidate in Alaska since the 1974 Senate race and the best performance for any statewide candidate in the state since the 2012 House race. Peltola was one of only five House Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections who won a district that Donald Trump carried in the 2020 presidential election;[lower-alpha 1] she outran Joe Biden's vote share by more than 20%, the highest overperformance of any House Democrat in the midterms.

Primary election

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Withdrew

Declined

Republican Party

Advanced to general

Withdrew after advancing to general

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Libertarian Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Alaskan Independence Party

Declined

American Independent Party

Eliminated in primary

  • Robert Ornelas, pastor and perennial candidate[6]

Independents

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Primary election results[18][31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mary Peltola 70,295 36.80
Republican Sarah Palin 57,693 30.20
Republican Nick Begich III 50,021 26.19
Republican Tara Sweeney (withdrew) 7,195 3.77
Libertarian Chris Bye[lower-alpha 2] 1,189 0.62
Libertarian J. R. Myers 531 0.28
Republican Bob Lyons 447 0.23
Republican Jay Armstrong 403 0.21
Republican Brad Snowden 355 0.19
Republican Randy Purham 311 0.16
Independent Lady Donna Dutchess 270 0.14
Independent Sherry Strizak 252 0.13
American Independent Robert Ornelas 248 0.13
Republican Denise Williams 242 0.13
Independent Gregg Brelsford 241 0.13
Independent David Hughes 238 0.12
Independent Andrew Phelps 222 0.12
Independent Tremayne Wilson 194 0.10
Independent Sherry Mettler 191 0.10
Independent Silvio Pellegrini 187 0.10
Independent Ted Heintz 173 0.09
Independent Davis LeBlanc 117 0.06
Total votes 191,015 100.00

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[32] Lean D November 1, 2022
Inside Elections[33] Lean D November 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] Lean D November 2, 2022
Politico[35] Lean D October 26, 2022
RCP[36] Tossup November 3, 2022
Fox News[37] Lean D November 1, 2022
DDHQ[38] Lean D November 8, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[39] Tossup November 3, 2022
The Economist[40] Lean D November 2, 2022

Debates and forums

As of September 2022, there had been one debate featuring the general election candidates.

A little over an hour before election results came in for the final round of the 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election, a debate was held for candidates of this house seat. All four candidates were included in the debate.

2022 Alaska U.S. Representative debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Nick Begich III Chris Bye Sarah Palin Mary Peltola
1 August 31, 2022 Alaska Oil and Gas Association Dave Karp YouTube P P P P
2 October 4, 2022 Kodiak Chamber of Commerce/KMXT (FM) Dan Rohr [1] P P P P
3 October 10, 2022 Anchorage Chamber of Commerce Julie Hasquet YouTube P P A P
4 October 21, 2022 Alaska Federation of Natives P P P P
5 October 26, 2022 Alaska Public Media/Alaska's News Source Lori Townsend, Mike Ross YouTube P P P P

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 RCV
count		 Mary
Peltola
(D)		 Sarah
Palin
(R)		 Nick
Begich
(R)		 Chris
Bye
(L)		 Undecided /
Not Ranked /
Other
Dittman Research November 2–3, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9%
1 48% 25% 23% 3% 1% U
1% O
2 49% 26% 25% Elim —
3 56% 44% Elim Elim —
Alaska Survey Research October 19–22, 2022 1,276 (LV) ± 3.0%
1 49% 26% 21% 5% —
2 51% 27% 22% Elim —
3 57% 43% Elim Elim —
3*[lower-alpha 4] 56% Elim 44% Elim —
Dittman Research October 4–8, 2022 411 (LV) ± 4.8%
1 45% 23% 28% 3% —
2 46% 24% 30% Elim —
3 52% Elim 48% Elim —
Alaska Survey Research September 25–27, 2022 1,282 (LV) ± 3.0%
1 49% 23% 26% 2% —
2 50% 24% 26% Elim —
3 54% Elim 46% Elim —
3*[lower-alpha 5] 56% 44% Elim Elim —
Dittman Research September 6–14, 2022 394 (LV) ± 4.9%
1 50% 27% 20% 3% 1% U
1% O
2 51% 28% 21% Elim —
3 58% 42% Elim Elim —
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] September 6–11, 2022 1,050 (LV) [lower-alpha 6] N/A[lower-alpha 7] 45% 30% 20% 2% 3% U
1 46% 31% 20% 2% 3% NR
2 47% 32% 21% Elim[lower-alpha 8] 4% NR
3 53% 47% Elim[lower-alpha 9] Elim 10% NR

<templatestyles src="Template:Hidden begin/styles.css"/>

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 RCV
count		 Nick
Begich
(R)		 Sarah
Palin
(R)		 Mary
Peltola
(D)		 Tara
Sweeney
(R)		 Undecided
Alaska Survey Research July 20–25, 2022 1,253 (LV) ± 3.0% 1 26% 27% 39% 8% –
2 29% 29% 42% Elim –
3 54% Elim 46% Elim –
3*[lower-alpha 10] Elim 48% 53% Elim –
Alaska Survey Research July 2–5, 2022 1,201 (LV) ± 2.9% 1 27% 27% 38% 8% –
2 31% 29% 41% Elim –
3 56% Elim 44% Elim –

Results

File:November 2022 Alaska-AL congressional district election preference flow.svg
Preference flow
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district election[67][68]
Party Candidate First choice Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Votes  % Transfer Votes  % Transfer Votes  % Transfer Votes  %
Democratic Mary Peltola (incumbent) 128,553 48.77% +202 128,755 48.66% +1,031 129,786 49.22% +7,477 137,263 54.96%
Republican Sarah Palin 67,866 25.74% +464 68,330 25.82% +1,069 69,399 26.32% +43,072 112,471 45.04%
Republican Nick Begich III 61,513 23.33% +992 62,505 23.62% +1,994 64,499 24.46% -64,499 Eliminated
Libertarian Chris Bye 4,570 1.73% +429 4,999 1.89% -4,999 Eliminated
Write-in 1,108 0.42% -1,108 Eliminated
Total votes 263,610 264,589 263,684 249,734
Blank or inactive ballots 2,208 +905 3,113 +13,950 17,063
Democratic hold

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ The others being Marcy Kaptur, Jared Golden, Matt Cartwright, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
  2. ↑ Chris Bye placed fifth in the nonpartisan primary. However, the fourth-place finisher — Tara Sweeney — withdrew, placing Bye in the general election.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ↑ Hypothetical scenario with Begich and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  5. ↑ Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  6. ↑ The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
  7. ↑ Standard polling question.
  8. ↑ Bye eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 33% to Begich, 25% to Palin, 17% to Peltola, and 25% not ranked further.
  9. ↑ Begich eliminated. Vote transfer break own: 56% to Palin, 14% to Peltola, 30% not ranked further.
  10. ↑ Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by AARP

References

  1. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  3. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  4. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  5. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  6. ↑ 6.00 6.01 6.02 6.03 6.04 6.05 6.06 6.07 6.08 6.09 6.10 6.11 6.12 6.13 6.14 6.15 6.16 6.17 6.18 6.19 6.20 6.21 6.22 6.23 6.24 6.25 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  7. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  10. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  12. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  14. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  18. ↑ 18.00 18.01 18.02 18.03 18.04 18.05 18.06 18.07 18.08 18.09 18.10 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  19. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  21. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  22. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  23. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  24. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  25. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  26. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  27. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  28. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 29.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  31. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  32. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  33. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  34. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  35. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  36. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  37. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  38. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  39. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  40. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  41. ↑ 41.00 41.01 41.02 41.03 41.04 41.05 41.06 41.07 41.08 41.09 41.10 41.11 41.12 41.13 41.14 41.15 41.16 41.17 41.18 41.19 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  42. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  43. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  44. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  45. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  46. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  47. ↑ 47.0 47.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  48. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  49. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  50. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  51. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  52. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  53. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  54. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  55. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  56. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  57. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  58. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  59. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  60. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  61. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  62. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  63. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  64. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  65. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  66. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  67. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  68. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.

External links

Official campaign websites
Retrieved from "https://infogalactic.com/w/index.php?title=2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska&oldid=727242238"